El Pais published today what it says is a transcript (in Spanish) of a February 22, 2003, conversation in which President Bush tells Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar the U.S. "will be in Baghdad at the end of March."
El Pais is Spain's largest daily newspaper. It says the transcript was made by Spain's ambassador to the U.S. The conversation took place at Bush's Crawford, Texas, ranch.
Editor & Publisher's staff used the following translation in a story on the transcript; it's terrible but you can get the gist of what was said from it. I'll post a more authoritative translation when it becomes available.
BUSH: Saddam Husein will not change and will continue playing. The moment has arrived for undoing of him. It is thus. I, as for me, will from now on try to use the possible subtlest rhetoric, while we looked for the approval of the resolution....Saddam Hussein is not being disarmed. We must take to him right now. We have shown an incredible degree of patience until now. They are left two weeks. In two weeks we will be militarily ready. I believe that we will obtain the second resolution.... We will be in Bagdad at the end of March. A 15% of possibilities that exist then Saddam Hussein is dead or has gone away...
We would like to act with the mandate of the United Nations. If we acted militarily we will do it with high accuracy and focusing much our objectives. We will decimate the loyal troops and the regular army quickly will know which it is.... We are developing a package of humanitarian aid very hard. We can win without destruction. We are raising Iraq already post Sadam, and I believe that there are good bases for a future better. Iraq relatively hard has a good bureaucracy and a civil society. It would be possible to be organized in a federation. Meanwhile we are doing all the possible one to take care of the necessities political of our friends and allies.
AZNAR: It is very important to count on a resolution. ... The next Wednesday [16 of February] I see myself with Chirac. The resolution already will have begun to circulate.
BUSH: It seems to me very well. Chirac knows the reality perfectly. Their intelligence services have explained it. The Arabs are transmitting him to Chirac a very clear message: Sadam Hussein must go away. The problem is that Chirac is created Mister Arab and in fact the life is making them impossible. But I do not want to have no rivalry with Chirac....
This is as the Chinese torture of the water. We must end it.
AZNAR: I agree, but it would be good for counting on the maximum number of possible people. Then a little patience.
BUSH: My patience is exhausted. I do not think to go beyond half of March.
[Saddam] is a thief, a terrorist, a criminal military. Compared with Saddam, Milosevic would be a Mother Teresa. When we enter we are going to discover many more crimes and we will take to the Court the International to him of Justice of Is It. Saddam Hussein thinks that already it has escaped. Think that France and Germany have stopped the process of their responsibilities....
AZNAR: In fact the greater success would be to gain the game without shooting a single shot and entering Bagdad.
BUSH: For me it would be the perfect solution. I do not want the war. I know what they are, the wars. I know the destruction and the death that bring with himself. I am the one that she has to console to the mothers and the widows of deads. By all means, for us that would be the best solution...
AZNAR: We needed that you help us with our public opinion....
BUSH: When within years History judges us I do not want that people ask themselves so that Bush, or Aznar, or Blair did not face their responsibilities. In the end, which people wants is to enjoy freedom. ..
AZNAR: The only thing which it worries to me about you is your optimism.
BUSH: I am optimistic because I believe that I am in the certain thing. I am peacefully with me same.
-- Douglas Carlucci
Update
Ken Silverstein at Washington Babylon translates to clear English the story's lead:
Four weeks before the invasion of Iraq . . . George W. Bush made a public demand to Saddam Hussein in the following terms: disarmament or war. Behind closed doors, Bush acknowledged that the war was inevitable. During a long private conversation with [Aznar], which took place on Saturday, February 22, 2003, Bush made clear that the time had come to take out Saddam: “There are two weeks left. In two weeks we’ll be militarily ready. We’ll be in Baghdad by the end of March.”
He also has key parts of the transcript. Here, President Bush seems a lot more aware of practical power than he has previously been portrayed:
[Condoleezza Rice has just described the diplomatic situation to Bush and Aznar, explaining that Iraq is continuing to insist that it has no weapons of mass destruction.]
Bush: This is like Chinese water torture. We have to put an end to it.
Aznar: I agree, but it would be best to have as much support as possible. Have a little patience.
Bush: My patience has ended. I’m not thinking of waiting beyond mid-March.
Aznar: I’m not asking that you have endless patience. Simply that everything is done to [have maximum international support].
Bush: Countries like Mexico, Chile, Angola, and Cameroon should know that what’s at stake is the security of the United States . . . [Chilean President Ricardo] Lagos should know that the Free Trade Accord with Chile is awaiting Senate confirmation and a negative attitude about this could put ratification in danger. Angola is receiving Millennium Account funds [to help alleviate poverty] and that could be jeopardized also if he’s not supportive…
Aznar: Tony [Blair] wants to wait until March 14.
Read more here.
Here's a translation of the whole thing. I'm not familiar with the blog that published it, but it lines up with the other translations.
Some writers are dismissing this as similar to the Downing Street Memo. That's true in a superficial way. They both seem to prove that the decision to invade Iraq was made well before the Bush administration claimed it was. This transcript, however, fills in the picture of how the U.S. dealt with its second-tier allies, which is an important story, too.